Tony Soprano is undoubtedly whacked in Holsten's diner in the concluding scene of the series finale.
This analysis has nothing to do with the YouTube hoax video that claims the boy scouts, black men and the "Man in Members Only Jacket" have appeared in past episodes -- in fact, that video is as inaccurate as they come. But that's not the point here (if you'd like to see me dissect and dismantle that video, feel free to look for a future post).
The easiest way to do this is to take it from the top.
The scene opens with Tony walking into the diner. To me, there is an immediate hint that Tony's death is imminent. If you freeze frame his stroll up to the door, there is a particular instance where -- through the reflection of a window -- the brake lights of a background car appear like an assassin's red beams on Tony's forehead and stomach. At this exact moment, Tony's eyes appear to be closed. Seems like textbook foreshadowing to me.
If you're a person who doesn't believe in directorial framing, mise en scene, or narrative symbolism and foreshadowing -- trust me, these things exist. Especially with a creator of David Chase's caliber. A quick rationalization for the preceding paragraph is: why show Tony walking past the window at all? Why not have him walk directly in, or begin his stroll closer to the door? The answer is simple...Chase wanted us to see that shot of the brake lights.
Considering the fanatical anticipation of this finale, everything about this concluding scene had to be carefully crafted. The best way to watch this scene is to assume that everything -- literally everything -- on screen is there for a reason.
Moving on. We see Tony walk into the diner and then pause, seemingly surprised to see nothing ominous or dangerous. Then we get a full shot of everyone in the seating area, with the light shining on Tony in the middle of the screen. The only things that stand out about this shot are Tony and the bengal on the wall in the upper left. Granted it appears to be a poster for the Cincinnati Bengals (the football team), the animal looks fierce and menacing and it's overlooking Tony.
More suggestive than the bengal's expression is the color of the poster. The color of the seating area shot is notably dull (primarily green and brown), but the bengal's tongue is a sharp red and there's a red smear directly below its head. Certainly brings to mind a smear of blood, which is symbolic of Tony's blood that spills off screen at the scene's end.
Then Tony takes a seat and we get our first close-up of the songs he's sifting through. The three song titles that jump out at me are "Those Were the Days," "Only the Strong Survive" and "Victim of Love":
"Were" is a deliberate use of the past tense, suggesting that Tony's time on earth is expiring and he's soon to be a thing of the past.
Tony is clearly on edge and more vulnerable than usual, which brings into question his strength. If "only the strong survive," then there's reason to believe that Tony won't survive this night.
"Victim of Love" -- of course, Tony is soon to be the victim of an assassination.
Then Tony flips to a second set of songs. Here, take notice of "A Lonely Place," "This Magic Moment" and "I'm Alive":
An old adage says "death is a lonely place."
"This Magic Moment" is self-referential on Chase's part. It's a magic moment in his career, but more importantly, how monumental is this scene if Tony isn't killed? Simply put, it's not. It's even more magical for Chase because he may be the only one who knows with absolutely certainty that Tony is killed.
And "I'm Alive"? Well, not for long Tony.
Then we get a seemingly meaningless shot of a waitress taking someone else's order -- but wait, there's that red smear from the Bengals poster again. Look, it's behind her on the left.
Then some more songs, "Who Will You Run To?" most notably. There's nowhere to run for Tony.
On to the oft-referenced focused shot of "Don't Stop Believing" and "Any Way You Want It". Theorists love to throw these together to create, "Don't Stop Believing Any Way You Want It" -- which no doubt, is clever -- but my eye darts to the song below these two that is partially cut off: "I'll Never Be In Love Again."
Tony can't be in love again if he's dead, right? (At least, this much we assume. Let's not open up another unrelated debate).
Then fittingly enough, Tony flips back to "A Lonely Place." Sure, this could just be referring to the fact that he's sitting at the table by himself, but I like the "death is a lonely place" interpretation better, don't you?
In comes the mysterious trucker. I don't think he's our man. He's merely there to raise suspicion and make us uneasy. He's no killer.
Soon after, Carmela makes her entrance. Again, color is key. Her coat is a dark, sharp red. The spilling of blood is near.
Tony slaps a menu down for her and we get a shot of a young couple sitting on the same side of a booth, bickering playfully. A clear juxtaposition to the older Soprano couple whose playful days are long gone. I think that's a nostalgic shot, a nice memory from the past that flashes through Tony's mind prior to his death.
Carmela takes off her coat and sure enough, the shirt below is black. Red and black -- the colors classically symbolic of blood and death. Hmm.
The Sopranos chat for a bit and we get another look at the misleading trucker.
Then, our man walks in, in perhaps the most deliberate shot of the entire scene. The killer walks in a step ahead of A.J. and blocks us from seeing A.J. in full. There is no question this shows the killer standing in the metaphorical way of A.J. and his father. This is the man who will separate father and son, permanently.
Tony looks up, almost proudly, at his son. They chat and the killer -- the "Man in Members Only Jacket," according to IMDB (scroll all the way to the bottom) and the final episode's credits -- certainly appears to be looking over at the Sopranos' table.
Then we get Meadow's first attempt at parking with a shot of her glaring red brake lights and another circular red light reflected through her windshield. The interior of her car is black. Black and red, again. If that's not enough red and black for you, back inside the diner the booth seats are red but a shadow makes it look black behind A.J. Hints of blood and death everywhere.
The killer looks over again. The Sopranos continue chatting, then we get a solo shot of A.J. as Tony playfully tosses his rolled up straw wrapper in his face. As A.J. looks down for a second, that red beam looms again in the distance. We see Tony's shoulder, and the beam (metaphorically) has a clean shot at him.
Meadow tries to park again, and the killer makes his move to the bathroom. Tony, paranoid, looks up. No gun is being pointed at him, so he looks back down. Unfortunately for Tony, he has good reason to be paranoid this time.
Two black men walk in, they're not killers. They are noticeably interested in the food up front.
Meadow finally parks and then sprints across the street. Why is she sprinting? Is she that concerned about being a little late for a dinner with her immediate family? Why does she looked so distressed? I don't think it's because she had trouble parking the car, it's not a look of frustration...
Meadow's face and actions are Chase's way of telling us that something terrible is definitely about to happen. Tony peers up and it's lights out. His daughter is the last thing he sees on this earth.
It harkens back to Bobby saying something way back like, "I bet you don't even see it coming when (death) happens," which was re-introduced in the episode when Bobby was whacked. Tony doesn't see it coming, the killer comes out of the bathroom and blasts him in the side of the head. An ode to Michael Corleone in "The Godfather."
Evidence also lies in Chase's choice to list the killer as "The Man in Members Only Jacket." The first episode of the sixth season is called "Members Only" -- an episode in which Junior shoots Tony.
The end result...
If there's a "Sopranos" movie some day, one thing's for sure...Tony won't be in it.
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