Coming off a semi-dramatic victory last night -- thanks to my boy Carlos Beltran -- this afternoon's game is a big one for the Mets. With ace Johan Santana on the hill, the Mets need to build off last night's resiliency and scrape together another victory to get things rolling.
But before we get to this afternoon's match-up, let's look back at a few of the disasters from yesterday's game that have since been swept under the rug (because it ended in a win).
First and foremost, there's Willie Randolph's decision to take Mike Pelfrey out of the ballgame in the 9th, after surrendering a bloop single to Stephen Drew. The facts: Pelfrey had given up just five hits in eight innings of work, including eight strikeouts and only a pair of early walks. He did, however, have 112 pitches.
On the other end, Billy Wagner -- Pelfrey's eventual replacement -- was coming off a horrific performance in San Diego in which he allowed a clean single to a lefty (journeyman Jody Gerut) and then a three-run bomb to old vet Tony Clark.
So what was Willie's rationale? Well, as always, he was doing his best to try to play things by "the book." The book says if you let a pitcher with a high pitch count go out there for the 9th and allows the leadoff hitter (of the inning) to get on, then you gotta yank him out. So, Willie did exactly that.
But c'mon. Can Willie think outside the box every once in awhile??? Give me a break!!!
Outside of the box, Pelfrey was throwing the best game of his Major League career against a first-place team that just couldn't figure him out. At times he overpowered them, in other instances he froze them with blazers on the corner.
Outside of the box, 112 pitches wasn't a pitch count that Willie needed to worry about. Pelfrey clearly had the game under control, and he's a young kid who throws predominantly fastballs and sinkers -- the strain on his precious arm isn't as bad as it would be for young guys who throw sharp breaking balls (the Mark Prior's, Kerry Wood's and A.J. Burnett's of the past.)
To Willie's defense, I know he was considering a few other factors. (1) Getting Pelfrey out with only one runner on would protect him from a potential game-tying home run off Wagner. Wagner doesn't like coming in with one runner on base, let alone two. I know that's a pessimistic way to think about one of the game's premier closers, but the fact is Wagner is prone to the longball when hitters know it is coming (like Mark Reynolds on a 3-2 count last night).
(2) Willie wanted to protect Pelfrey from blowing the game himself. You know the cliches -- "protect his confidence," "protect his psyche." If Willie had left him in there and made it his game to lose, and he blew it, we know many people would be saying "why didn't Willie go to Wagner?" today.
(3) He wanted to put Wagner back out there so he could shake off his terrible performance in San Diego, and get back on track. The Mets need Wagner to be dominant if they're going to continue playing tight, low-scoring games.
And what do I have to say about those three reasons? All BULLSHIT.
Sure, Pelfrey's young in baseball years, but he's a big boy in real life. He wasn't afraid of blowing that game last night, but he was damn sure terrified when Wagner was in there. Leave Pelfrey in there, and let him determine the outcome. If he blows it -- and let me make it clear that I don't think he would have -- then you pat him on the back when it's over and tell him "you still pitched a hell of a game, kid."
All right, deep breath. Moving on from there...
I CAN'T STAND Brian Schneider. But I don't really blame him, because he didn't trade himself to the Mets, and he doesn't play himself over Ramon Castro. Brian Schneider sucks. He's a .253 lifetime hitter. Sure, he's a catcher and their average averages are lower, but he's weak, has no pop and he swings like a 67-year old man. He grounds out slowly to second more than any player I've ever seen.
So if I don't blame Schneider for sucking, who do I blame? Omar Minaya and Willie Randolph, of course. Again, most of the blame has to go to Willie here. Minaya traded for Schneider, but he also brought us Ryan Church in the deal -- without question, Church was our best player for the first 1/4 of this season.
It's Willie's fault for sticking with Schneider as the No. 1 catcher. Yea yea, I've heard all the garbage about Schneider being great for the pitching staff and good defensively, but I don't care -- we need hits! We have to start hitting! And that means Ramon Castro should be the primary catcher. Besides, how great can Schneider be with the pitchers? Oliver Perez, John Maine and Aaron Heilman are all worse than they were last season.
I'm not saying Castro should play every single day behind the dish, because that's not realistic. Ramon's a little heavy and his weight has indirectly led to various injuries in the past, including one at the beginning of this season. Castro should start three out of every four games. In the other game they can squeeze Schneider in there, or even Raul Casanova who is probably a more dangerous hitter.
Speaking of Casanova, I didn't like the decision to send him down. I liked having the three catchers because it made Castro available to be our top pinch hitter, although Willie didn't really take much advantage of that. He's always too worried about sticking to "the book" and making sure he has a catcher saved for a potential extra inning situation. Because what happens if you use all of your catchers to hit and then the last one gets injured in extra innings on a freak play? Oh no, not the freak play injury! We have to send Robinson Cancel up there instead! Gotta save Castro!
C'mon!
All right, I'm getting too riled up. Let's just get a win today and keep going from there.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
The MLB's Top 10 Starting Pitchers
It's a new era in baseball, the era of zero dominant pitchers. Sure, there are some great pitchers and plenty of above-average guys, but there is no one as dominant as Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, etc. were in their primes.
Simply put, no pitcher is safe in today's Major Leagues. I just saw 77-year old Tony Clark hit a game winning, pinch hit home run off a 96 mph Billy Wagner fastball, low and outside on the black. Not to mention the fact that the ball soared over the center field fence of the league's most spacious park (Petco). If that can happen, then no matter how impressive your stuff is, ML hitters can get to you. Any inning, any situation.
As a result, the door is wide open for discussion. It's difficult to set general standards for the rankings on this list, so I'll do my best to explain my rationale at each particular position. Here goes:
#1-Josh Beckett, RHP-Boston Red Sox
I know what you're thinking -- Beckett's ERA is slightly over 4 right now. But the rationale is this: If everything was on the line and you had your pick of every Major League pitcher, wouldn't you send Beckett to the mound?
If the answer in your mind was "no," then you're probably on drugs or know very little about baseball. Beckett's career regular season numbers may not be as impressive as the Brandon Webb's, Jake Peavy's and Johan Santana's of the world, but the big fella has pitched in the postseason twice -- once with Florida and last year with Boston -- and both times he made opposing hitters look like little leaguers.
Oh yea...his team won the World Series both times, too.
Beckett is menacing, nasty, and poised -- an unusual but impressive trio of traits. He features a 94-98 mph fastball -- sometimes maintaining 96-97 as late as the 8th or 9th inning -- and baseball's sharpest overhand breaking ball. When he's on with the cranker, and using it with regularity, Beckett's unhittable. Just ask the 2002 Yankees, or last year's Rockies, Indians and Angels.
Beckett's the premier postseason starter in the bigs, and in my opinion, he has the best power repertoire in the league.
#2-Brandon Webb, RHP-Arizona Diamondbacks
Like Beckett, Webb is a giant on the hill. However, their pitching styles compare like Steve Nash and Dwight Howard -- two entirely different entities. While Beckett looks to strike fear into the hearts of his opponents with launched rockets, Webb tries to lull hitters to sleep with movement and varying speeds.
Webb is currently 11-2, boasting the most wins in baseball by two (over Joe Saunders, Mike Mussina and Cliff Lee.) He's fifth in the Majors in ERA (2.58) and he was one of the top statistical pitchers over the course of the past two seasons, as well.
Webb's bread-and-butter is a sharp, darting sinker that he throws virtually all of the time. He likes to work off that sinker with a nice diving change-up and a deceiving slider. I'm not big on "what ifs," but I do wonder if Webb would be as successful as an American League pitcher. For some reason, I highly doubt he'd retain his current level of success.
But there's no substance behind that. All I know is Webb changes speeds well, has great command, and a mind for the game. He's earned this No. 2 spot.
#3-Jake Peavy, RHP-San Diego Padres
Here's a guy who has really had to work to convince me of his greatness over the years. What turns me off about Peavy is he's essentially a two-pitch pitcher (fastball/slider) and his arm angle puts him at a severe disadvantage against left-handed hitters.
And yet there he is at the top of the ML strikeout totals every year. Sure, he probably won't be up there at the end of this season, but that's merely due to injury. Peavy is a gamer, he throws strikes, attacks hitters, works fast and puts righties away when he needs to. He has a plus slider, and the movement on his two-seam fastball is incredible.
Of course, Peavy's also reaped the benefits of Petco Park through the years. But I can't fault a guy for sticking with a team with a favorable pitchers' ballpark. That's just smart business on his part.
#4-Roy Halladay, RHP-Toronto Blue Jays
See, here's a good example of the "no dominant pitchers" thing. Halladay's just not that special. Don't get me wrong, he's been one of the top pitchers in the American League for quite awhile now -- despite having to deal with the Red Sox and Yankees four or five times every year -- but he doesn't blow anyone away.
Halladay's greatest strength is his durability. Right now he's leading the Majors in complete games with 5, and the second-place pitcher has just two. Roy is known for his big hook, and exceptional command of both sides of the plate. He keeps his pitch count down, changes speeds well, and can still get it up around 94-95 mph when he needs to bite down.
There's not a team in baseball who wouldn't love to have a player with Halladay's mentality and guts.
#5-Johan Santana, LHP-New York Mets
A couple of years ago, this guy was the closest thing to the primes of Pedro, Maddux etc. Johan's just not at that level anymore. He continues to exhibit great control, almost to a fault. Santana's been getting hurt on many two-strike pitches this season.
That said, he's still 7-4 with a nice 3.08 ERA right now. Santana makes the opposition hit at his pace, and he controls the middle of the diamond by fielding his position well. His patented change-up isn't diving as much as it used to, but he's still 11th in the bigs in strikeouts.
There's not too much else to say about Johan at this point. He's still a good pitcher, but I don't think anyone fears him.
#6-Carlos Zambrano, RHP-Chicago Cubs
Major League Baseball's version of "Big Z" confuses me. When Zambrano first came up, he threw 96-99 mph with a free-and-easy motion, and his numbers weren't exceptional. Now he's bigger, stiffer and throws slower, and he's barely getting touched. Carlos is 8-2 with a 3.01 ERA.
However, his 63 Ks in 92 innings speaks volumes about the deterioration of his stuff. But I'm not gonna knock the guy too much -- he's the best pitcher on the "best" team in baseball at the moment. Still, I'd look for a bit of a second half decline.
#7-C.C. Sabathia, LHP-Cleveland Indians
This is where the list really starts to get ugly. Sure, C.C. is the AL's reigning Cy Young award winner, but he's currenly 3-8 with 4.81 ERA.
Yikes. I know, that's shitty.
But C.C. is third in the Majors in strikeouts, with 82. That means his stuff is still sharp, and he's probably pitched into some bad luck during the first half. Like Beckett, Sabathia can be an intimidating force on the hill, and he's not afraid to continually pressure hitters with his 93-97 mph fastball -- especially on the inner portion of the plate.
Expect C.C. to bounce back in the "wins" column after the All-Star break.
#8-Chien-Ming Wang, RHP-New York Yankees
When I told a few friends that Wang was probably going to make this list, their reaction was "ewwwww." His ERA is over 4.50, and he's not a flashy strikeout pitcher.
But -- and it's a significant "but" -- Wang's a winner. At least, in the regular season he is. Despite the relatively high ERA, the tall sinkerballer has a solid 6-2 record. In fact, Wang has the most wins of any pitcher in baseball over the course of the past three seasons. That statistic alone is enough to earn him a position on this list.
Wang has been anything but lights out so far this year, but his winning percentage remains strong and he rarely ever seems shaken or intimidated on the mound.
#9-Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP-Boston Red Sox
When I saw Dice-K's first Major League start at the beginning of last season, I told a few Red Sox fans: "He's going to be fine. A good pitcher, an eventual all-star -- but not a superstar."
Now, I'm not so sure. My doubt has something to do with lack of exceptional pitching in the league today, but Dice is 8-0 with an impressive 2.53 ERA. These statistics come, of course, in spite of the friendly offensive confines of Fenway Park. The success says a lot about Matsuzaka's competitive fire and grit.
Also, few recall that Dice-K was undefeated (3-0) in the postseason last year. Not too shabby for a ML rookie.
Matsuzaka has about seven pitches (although a few of them seem like the same pitch most of the time) and he's intelligent with his selection. I guess some of that credit can go to the Sox's captain, Jason Varitek. Either way, Dice-K has done more than enough to earn a low-level spot on this list.
#10-Dan Haren, RHP-Arizona Diamondbacks
This spot could have gone to a number of different guys -- I'm going with Haren because he was a true ace last season, and he continues to pitch well this year while dealing with a new setting in Arizona. Haren has six wins for the first-place Diamondbacks, and his 3.44 ERA places him amongst the league's best.
Haren features a 92-95 mph four-seam fastball, and one of baseball's nastiest splitters. He doesn't look as electric as he did last season, but there's no question that he continues to get the job done. He may loosen up and improve as the weather heats up in the desert.
Honorable Mention:
#11-Scott Kazmir, LHP-Tampa Bay Rays
#12-Ben Sheets, RHP-Milwaukee Brewers
#13-Felix Hernandez, RHP-Seattle Mariners
#14-Cole Hamels, LHP-Philadelphia Phillies
#15-Tim Hudson, RHP-Atlanta Braves
** As always, I welcome all comments/opposing lists below. **
Simply put, no pitcher is safe in today's Major Leagues. I just saw 77-year old Tony Clark hit a game winning, pinch hit home run off a 96 mph Billy Wagner fastball, low and outside on the black. Not to mention the fact that the ball soared over the center field fence of the league's most spacious park (Petco). If that can happen, then no matter how impressive your stuff is, ML hitters can get to you. Any inning, any situation.
As a result, the door is wide open for discussion. It's difficult to set general standards for the rankings on this list, so I'll do my best to explain my rationale at each particular position. Here goes:
#1-Josh Beckett, RHP-Boston Red Sox
I know what you're thinking -- Beckett's ERA is slightly over 4 right now. But the rationale is this: If everything was on the line and you had your pick of every Major League pitcher, wouldn't you send Beckett to the mound?
If the answer in your mind was "no," then you're probably on drugs or know very little about baseball. Beckett's career regular season numbers may not be as impressive as the Brandon Webb's, Jake Peavy's and Johan Santana's of the world, but the big fella has pitched in the postseason twice -- once with Florida and last year with Boston -- and both times he made opposing hitters look like little leaguers.
Oh yea...his team won the World Series both times, too.
Beckett is menacing, nasty, and poised -- an unusual but impressive trio of traits. He features a 94-98 mph fastball -- sometimes maintaining 96-97 as late as the 8th or 9th inning -- and baseball's sharpest overhand breaking ball. When he's on with the cranker, and using it with regularity, Beckett's unhittable. Just ask the 2002 Yankees, or last year's Rockies, Indians and Angels.
Beckett's the premier postseason starter in the bigs, and in my opinion, he has the best power repertoire in the league.
#2-Brandon Webb, RHP-Arizona Diamondbacks
Like Beckett, Webb is a giant on the hill. However, their pitching styles compare like Steve Nash and Dwight Howard -- two entirely different entities. While Beckett looks to strike fear into the hearts of his opponents with launched rockets, Webb tries to lull hitters to sleep with movement and varying speeds.
Webb is currently 11-2, boasting the most wins in baseball by two (over Joe Saunders, Mike Mussina and Cliff Lee.) He's fifth in the Majors in ERA (2.58) and he was one of the top statistical pitchers over the course of the past two seasons, as well.
Webb's bread-and-butter is a sharp, darting sinker that he throws virtually all of the time. He likes to work off that sinker with a nice diving change-up and a deceiving slider. I'm not big on "what ifs," but I do wonder if Webb would be as successful as an American League pitcher. For some reason, I highly doubt he'd retain his current level of success.
But there's no substance behind that. All I know is Webb changes speeds well, has great command, and a mind for the game. He's earned this No. 2 spot.
#3-Jake Peavy, RHP-San Diego Padres
Here's a guy who has really had to work to convince me of his greatness over the years. What turns me off about Peavy is he's essentially a two-pitch pitcher (fastball/slider) and his arm angle puts him at a severe disadvantage against left-handed hitters.
And yet there he is at the top of the ML strikeout totals every year. Sure, he probably won't be up there at the end of this season, but that's merely due to injury. Peavy is a gamer, he throws strikes, attacks hitters, works fast and puts righties away when he needs to. He has a plus slider, and the movement on his two-seam fastball is incredible.
Of course, Peavy's also reaped the benefits of Petco Park through the years. But I can't fault a guy for sticking with a team with a favorable pitchers' ballpark. That's just smart business on his part.
#4-Roy Halladay, RHP-Toronto Blue Jays
See, here's a good example of the "no dominant pitchers" thing. Halladay's just not that special. Don't get me wrong, he's been one of the top pitchers in the American League for quite awhile now -- despite having to deal with the Red Sox and Yankees four or five times every year -- but he doesn't blow anyone away.
Halladay's greatest strength is his durability. Right now he's leading the Majors in complete games with 5, and the second-place pitcher has just two. Roy is known for his big hook, and exceptional command of both sides of the plate. He keeps his pitch count down, changes speeds well, and can still get it up around 94-95 mph when he needs to bite down.
There's not a team in baseball who wouldn't love to have a player with Halladay's mentality and guts.
#5-Johan Santana, LHP-New York Mets
A couple of years ago, this guy was the closest thing to the primes of Pedro, Maddux etc. Johan's just not at that level anymore. He continues to exhibit great control, almost to a fault. Santana's been getting hurt on many two-strike pitches this season.
That said, he's still 7-4 with a nice 3.08 ERA right now. Santana makes the opposition hit at his pace, and he controls the middle of the diamond by fielding his position well. His patented change-up isn't diving as much as it used to, but he's still 11th in the bigs in strikeouts.
There's not too much else to say about Johan at this point. He's still a good pitcher, but I don't think anyone fears him.
#6-Carlos Zambrano, RHP-Chicago Cubs
Major League Baseball's version of "Big Z" confuses me. When Zambrano first came up, he threw 96-99 mph with a free-and-easy motion, and his numbers weren't exceptional. Now he's bigger, stiffer and throws slower, and he's barely getting touched. Carlos is 8-2 with a 3.01 ERA.
However, his 63 Ks in 92 innings speaks volumes about the deterioration of his stuff. But I'm not gonna knock the guy too much -- he's the best pitcher on the "best" team in baseball at the moment. Still, I'd look for a bit of a second half decline.
#7-C.C. Sabathia, LHP-Cleveland Indians
This is where the list really starts to get ugly. Sure, C.C. is the AL's reigning Cy Young award winner, but he's currenly 3-8 with 4.81 ERA.
Yikes. I know, that's shitty.
But C.C. is third in the Majors in strikeouts, with 82. That means his stuff is still sharp, and he's probably pitched into some bad luck during the first half. Like Beckett, Sabathia can be an intimidating force on the hill, and he's not afraid to continually pressure hitters with his 93-97 mph fastball -- especially on the inner portion of the plate.
Expect C.C. to bounce back in the "wins" column after the All-Star break.
#8-Chien-Ming Wang, RHP-New York Yankees
When I told a few friends that Wang was probably going to make this list, their reaction was "ewwwww." His ERA is over 4.50, and he's not a flashy strikeout pitcher.
But -- and it's a significant "but" -- Wang's a winner. At least, in the regular season he is. Despite the relatively high ERA, the tall sinkerballer has a solid 6-2 record. In fact, Wang has the most wins of any pitcher in baseball over the course of the past three seasons. That statistic alone is enough to earn him a position on this list.
Wang has been anything but lights out so far this year, but his winning percentage remains strong and he rarely ever seems shaken or intimidated on the mound.
#9-Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP-Boston Red Sox
When I saw Dice-K's first Major League start at the beginning of last season, I told a few Red Sox fans: "He's going to be fine. A good pitcher, an eventual all-star -- but not a superstar."
Now, I'm not so sure. My doubt has something to do with lack of exceptional pitching in the league today, but Dice is 8-0 with an impressive 2.53 ERA. These statistics come, of course, in spite of the friendly offensive confines of Fenway Park. The success says a lot about Matsuzaka's competitive fire and grit.
Also, few recall that Dice-K was undefeated (3-0) in the postseason last year. Not too shabby for a ML rookie.
Matsuzaka has about seven pitches (although a few of them seem like the same pitch most of the time) and he's intelligent with his selection. I guess some of that credit can go to the Sox's captain, Jason Varitek. Either way, Dice-K has done more than enough to earn a low-level spot on this list.
#10-Dan Haren, RHP-Arizona Diamondbacks
This spot could have gone to a number of different guys -- I'm going with Haren because he was a true ace last season, and he continues to pitch well this year while dealing with a new setting in Arizona. Haren has six wins for the first-place Diamondbacks, and his 3.44 ERA places him amongst the league's best.
Haren features a 92-95 mph four-seam fastball, and one of baseball's nastiest splitters. He doesn't look as electric as he did last season, but there's no question that he continues to get the job done. He may loosen up and improve as the weather heats up in the desert.
Honorable Mention:
#11-Scott Kazmir, LHP-Tampa Bay Rays
#12-Ben Sheets, RHP-Milwaukee Brewers
#13-Felix Hernandez, RHP-Seattle Mariners
#14-Cole Hamels, LHP-Philadelphia Phillies
#15-Tim Hudson, RHP-Atlanta Braves
** As always, I welcome all comments/opposing lists below. **
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